Who will win Best Director?

Awards Daily polls film bloggers on the most likely Best Director nominees:—

Ed Douglas: "Jason Reitman, Joel and Ethan Coen, Lee Daniels, Quentin Tarantino, Lone Scherfig."

Scott Feinberg: "The clear favorite is Clint Eastwood. It seems likely that the rest of the field will be filled out by Jason Reitman, Rob Marshall, Lee Daniels, and Kathryn Bigelow."

Pete Hammond: "Kathryn Bigelow, Clint Eastwood, Rob Marshall, Jason Reitman, Quentin Tarantino or Lee Daniels."

Peter Howell: "Jason Reitman, Kathryn Bigelow, Lone Scherfig, Jane Campion and Tom Ford."

Craig Kennedy: "Bigelow, Reitman, Coens, Scherfig, Jonze."

Tom O'Neil: "James Cameron, Lee Daniels, Clint Eastwood, Peter Jackson and Rob Marshall."

Anne Thompson: "Kathryn Bigelow, Joel and Ethan Coen, Peter Jackson, Clint Eastwood, Jason Reitman."

Craig Kennedy comes closest. I think it's going to be Jonze, Bigelow, Eastwood, Reitman, Jackson — and that Bigelow will win. There's no Titanic this year, which means Director and Best Film can be split apart and if they're split apart, there's no resisting the argument for the first female director to win. Plus the film rocks.