State of the race: November 6th

Gurus of Gold, one of the more reliable Oscar odds-makers have published their first take on the race. Their front runner for Best Picture is Up In The Air, followed by Precious, The Hurt Locker, Invictus and An Education. Best Actor is George Clooney followed by Colin Firth, Morgan Freeman, Jeremy Renner and Viggo Mortenson. Best Actress is Carey Mulligan, Meryl Streep, Gabourey Sidibe, Helen Mirren and Saoirse Ronan. They calculate their odds by averaging out the scores of the critics. I'm going to disagree; the academy listen to the critics, but only up to point. I think fans of Up In The Air are in for shock once that movie hits theatres. It's going to do what Duplicity did in the spring: critical raves, limp box office, rapid loss of heat. I would put Precious as the front-runner, unless The Lovely Bones and Invictus turn into big hits. Same for George Clooney: its just another slice of George. It'll be Firth or Bridges. Carey Mulligan should, and still could, win best Actress. There. Done.