Aug 10, 2011
What kind of election is 2012 going to be?
Rachel Maddow is still keeping faith in the 'swinging pendulum' model, wherein swing voters react against the last thing they chose. The trouble with this model is the ever-shortening reaction times that come with increased economic panic. Which of their recent decisions are voters reacting against? Those with longer memories are still reacting against 8 years of Bush. But even within that group, some are reacting against the 2 year's worth of democrats chosen in reaction against 8 years of Bush. And within that group, there are some reacting against the one year's worth of Republicans chosen in reaction against the 2 years of Democrats who constituted the reaction against 8 years of Bush. People cannot find a group to become disenchanted with fast enough. We are almost at the point where they will be counter-voting against the incumbency they have yet to vote it. Our pendulum is no longer swinging. It's vibrating, like a tuning fork, caught in a perfect stasis of equal and countervailing forces — a mosquito buzz of pure antsiness. The coming election will not be any kind of 'swing' election, me thinks. It will resemble one of those strange weather systems where the sky goes green, the winds drop away and the birds are left looking at one another nervously across a breezeless void. A crow squawks. A church bell rings. The president coughs to get everyone's attention.