Feb 25, 2011

Academy Award predictions 2011

The question hanging over this year's Oscars, to paraphrase Jeffrey Wells, is whether the Academy are going to go "full fart" or not. My own feeling is that they are going to go three-quarters fart, splitting off 3 Oscars (director, editing, script) for The Social Network but keeping the lion's share for The King's Speech (film, script, actor, art dir., score). Inception cleans up in the technical categories, The Fighter mops up supporting, leaving one apiece for Black Swan, Alice, Toy Story 3, and True Grit, so the $100-million club all go home with something, while The Kids Are Alright, 127 Hours and Winter's Bone get zip. I should add — in the interests of lending my selections at least a patina of on-the-ground legitimacy — that I am writing this from the pink, decoish splendor of the Beverly Hills Hotel, where my efforts to acquire a George Hamilton-like tan are currently being thwarted by low-hanging cloud. My tin foil sun reflectors are at the ready for even a few seconds of sun. My article for The Guardian about the membership of the Academy here.
Best Film: The King's Speech
Best Director: David Fincher
Best Actor: Colin Firth
Actress: Natalie Portman
Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
Supp Actress: Melissa Leo
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin
Original Screenplay: David Seidler
Cinematography: True Grit
Costumes: The King's Speech
Editing: The Social Network
Make Up: The Wolfman
Sound Mixing: Inception
Sound Editing: Inception
Special Effects: Inception
Score: The King's Speech
Song: We Belong Together
Documentary Short: Strangers No More
Live-action Short: Wish 143
Foreign Language: In A Better World
Animated Short: The Gruffalo
Documentary: Inside Job


  1. "Full fart," "three-quarters fart": Spare us the elitist technical jargon, Shone!

    But seriously. I agree with just about everything, except I'm going with Steinfeld for Supporting Actress. My hunch is they'll want to reward "True Grit" a little more, and punish Melissa Leo for naked desperation. (Cloistered desperation is, of course, perfectly acceptable.)

  2. I hope you are right, because I don't see much in the way of potential upsets otherwise. Plus, of course, Leo's performance is close to unendurable the more that film goes on, but that's just my personal feeling, something I try to extinguish from my breast when making these predictions, aiming instead for an icy objectivity that sends a chill through all onlookers

  3. It wouldn't shock me if Leo won. Or Helena Bonham Carter for that matter, though I suspect she's still too weird for mainstream taste.(Her actual personality, I mean, not the one she adopts in the movie.) I just have a gut feeling that voters really like Steinfeld and really like "True Grit" and want to hoist her into the Tatum O'Neal/Anna Paquin pantheon.

  4. You make a good case. As Sunday draws near and the smack-talk between my wife and I intensifies, I may have to think again....

  5. You mention TSN winning for script in your text but there's no mention of Sorkin for Adapted screenplay in your list

  6. Oops. Hope you didn't bet anything valuable.