How the Oscars look from here

The Vulture lays down its Oscar cards. They're quite big on Jane Campion's Bright Star and the Jason Reitman-George Clooney comedy, Up In the Air. Hmm. Nobody seems to be agreeing with me that Stanley Tucci should win Best Supporting actor, but I'm keeping the faith. I also just had a shiver up my leg telling me that Katherine Bigelow as going to win Best Director, making her the first woman ever to win. Never one to be beaten in the premature speculation game, here's how it looks to me, as of Aug 1, having seen precisely two of the movies concerned.

Best Film: The Lovely Bones, An Education, Up, Invictus, The Hurt Locker, Nine, Precious, Bright Star, Avatar, Up In The Air
Director: Katherine Bigelow, James Cameron, Peter Jackson, Clint Eastwood, Rob Marshall
Actor: Morgan Freeman, Daniel Day Lewis, Jeremy Renner, Sam Rockwell, George Clooney
Actress: Carey Mulligan, Meryl Streep, Michelle Monaghan, Abbie Cornish, Hillary Swank
Supporting Actor: Stanley Tucci, Christoph Waltz, Matt Damon, Alfred Molina, Liev Schreiber
Supporting Actress: Monique, Penelope Cruz, Susan Sarandon, Judi Dench, Saorise Ronan