Dem Ticket Rep TicketIts the number at the bottom that stuns the outside observer: Sarah Palin is winning over Independents, despite being way further right than McCain. This bears out a theory of mine: that many of the people who have been describing themselves as Independents are no such thing; rather, they are embarrassed republicans, a distant cousin of the shy Tory. Nate Silver, over at FiveThirtyEight.com, spies a weakness:—
Total 46 39
Democrats 84 5
Republicans 7 82
Independents 36 38
"Of course, the Democrats ought not make it personal against Sarah Palin. That will fail. The Democrats, however, do have a couple of things working in their favor. Firstly, voters do not know very much about Sarah Palin apart from the personal stuff... And fortunately for Democrats, the ground is fertile. It is fertile because the Republicans significantly overplayed their hand on earmarks. Palin was before the bridge to nowhere before she was against it. John McCain was against $3 million to study bear DNA in Montana -- but how does he feel about $3.2 million to study the DNA of harbor seals in Alaska? It was in Alaska's earmark request (last row of the second page). Or the mere fact that Alaska is the nation's runaway leader in earmark requests... Earmark reform is Palin's warrant for being a change agent. Palin is McCain's warrant for being a change agent. "Right change" is the argument that McCain has staked his election upon. You win this argument, you probably win the election. It's not that complicated. It should not even be a particularly difficult argument for the Democrats to win, but they need to make sure that 90 percent of the voters know about harbor seal DNA by the time that Election Day hits."The election has taken a decidely Disneyish turn. First moose (skinned), then polar bears (endangered), then wolves (minus their feet), then pitbulls (minus lipstick), then pigs (wearing lipstick), now seals (bearing million-dollar DNA). When are we going to start seeing them in the ads? Please?